Banks buffetting to a "b" wave top on a beat of their own - bearishly

Recently I've been pointing out that the banking index ($BKX) has chart resistance in the area and slightly above about $50. Also that Tony Caldaro's count for the regional banking index (its ETF being KRE) already logged in a "b" wave top, with the ETF more matched to $BKX - KBE - closing in on its own "b" wave rally top. (Thanks to Tony for his KBE chart below, under my $BKX chart - you can find all Tony's charts via his public charts link from his Elliott Wave Lives On site, in the sites list at right.) The wave pattern I find more ambiguous for the $BKX and KBE, than that for the broader market. Specifically, it's possible to count both $BKX and KBE as either done, or having another final wave up still to go. The negative divergence in the indicators signals that either way, investors should be thinking about taking profits off the table (and the more aggressive, selling short) on the next bounce which might have a time frame of early October.

The wave count suggests at least a retest of the lows, and a real probability of new lows. Fundamentally it's conceivable with the looming prospects of commercial real estate dragging down banks' balance sheets. And this talk of the FDIC going hat in hand for good banks to loan it bucks for bad banks (I guess a Ponzi plan is okay if it's the FDIC with actual intentions of repaying the bagholders). Brrrrr!