Bonds join gold and non-dollar currencies in aversion to perceived risks of commodities and equities

Folks, I'll be returning later to post up some charts to go along with these quick notes - I just want to put in a placeholder to discuss a few markets for what is moving and what isn't. Or to be more precise, what's going up, what's going down. I dropped in on Tony Caldaro's OEW site (included in the list at right, and you can also see his site feed where his daily updates come in at right), and he's seeing what I also see in the indicators, the possibility for a bounce up into the end of this week. I see it in the technical indicators as I briefly discussed in posts at UBTNB3 I just made, along with the VIX which may be ready for a pullback or consolidation. The strength, or lack of strength, in a technical bounce will go a long way toward confirming this new downtrend. There are various reasons to look at the 990 area in SPX as being important, and if and when it breaks, to look toward 970 and 950. Then of course the 940 area of the June highs can be an area to watch once a downswing really gets underway.

Similarly, an observation, that Goldman Sachs (GS) as I've mentioned before can have an objective and price support about $150. If (when?) that gives way, we can start thinking more seriously about both GS and the equities markets generally going into the large "C" wave down.

Tony mentioned that not only oil but also commodities generally are downtrending - that certainly fits with the concerns I've pointed out with my charts of oil!

And he also mentioned bonds uptrending, and I am on board with that as I commented recently on the triangle pattern that some including Marty Chenard had commented upon recently. I had pointed out that the indicators suggested it would move upward from that consolidation, so the movement upward is consistent with that.

It may seem strange that bonds, and gold, and the yen (and Tony mentioned the euro uptrending too ....) look moving up as they represent different types of asset classes - are these all considered to be risk aversion trades? I can understand that for bonds, and perhaps for gold to the extent that people are afraid of what these trillion-dollar debts and deficits represent. Perhaps the yen and euro fall into that latter category too.