Bulls and bears are debating again: quick glimpse of what some analysts are seeing and saying

Bulls and bears are at it again of course - let's start with a reminder to check in on Terry Laundry with his T Theory and those T's he's been showing with a potential peaking out later this month or early to mid-October, at his T Theory site. Doesn't it seem possible that matches up with what Tony and Andre are seeing? Andre's update is out, by the way, so I'll try to get it posted soon. As for my charts of the SPX monthly fork and Bollinger Band midline, posted recently - well, we'll just have to see! Here's the reader question Terry has posted, that he addresses as part of his update today:

Update for Sunday September 20 2009 Question; Last week you drew in a new Short-Term T on the Daily Chart and said it expires about the end of the 3rd week of Sept. You appeared to draft the T from the Volume Oscillator, with a Centerpost at the 9/2 low in the VO and the left side of the T looking back to the recent 8/5 high in the VO. I calculate 20 TRADING DAYS between the two dates, taking the right side of the T to OCTOBER 1st -- not the third week in Sept.

ALTERNATIVE METHOD: Drafting the T from A-D Line high on 8/13 to its low on 9/2 counts out to 14 TRADING DAYS, placing the terminal date on A-D T @ 9/21 -- three weeks into September.

I'm trying to chart these Ts, and I'm confused. The T you drew on the Daily Short-Term Chart was clearly drafted off the Volume Oscillator. WHICH IS THE RIGHT WAY TO CALCULATE THE "T". I know this isn't a pure science, but being off a week or more on a T lasting less than a month, seems a little too much. I'm concerned that I'm calculating these Ts incorrectly.

I hope you can cover this in Sunday's Audio. I greatly appreciate the work you do. Sincerely, Alex

Meantime there's also Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Bulls Remain Firmly in Command, at http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=95266. Their intro this weekend says: "Solid economic reports and testimonials by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Barack Obama provided plenty of fuel for Wall Street bulls last week. Obama used the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse to stump for tighter regulations on the financial sector, while Bernanke all but declared the "all clear" on the U.S. recession. As a result, all three of the major U.S. indexes soared more than 2% for the week. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, reviews important levels on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), and takes a look at what to expect in the week following quadruple-witching expiration. Todd also examines why the sentiment backdrop could support higher prices. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the supposed increase in volatility during quadruple-witching expiration weeks and comes to a surprising conclusion, including why Monday could be a rather rough trading session. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week."
Here's the intro of Todd's comments:

What the Trader Is Expecting in the Coming Week: Stage Is Set For a Move to 1,120
By Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research

Last week, I posed the question "What gives?" with respect to key indexes facing significant resistance levels, along with the historically bullish effects of expiration week. The first hour of trading on Monday last week indicated that technical action was driving the market, as equities gapped lower. However, stocks quickly reversed course, culminating in a steady grind higher into Thursday morning. Key resistance levels were taken out, as the expiration-week bullish unwind flexed its muscle.

This week, we'll review important levels on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), as well as take a look at what to expect in the week following quadruple-witching expiration. Finally, I'll give you a brief overview on why the sentiment backdrop could support higher prices in the weeks and months ahead.

The SPX closed above its 80-week moving average on Friday. This long-term trendline is currently sitting at 1,050.60. Since 2005, this moving average has marked significant turning points following various pullbacks and rallies. The bulls are hoping there will be a few more weekly closes above this trendline to confirm the breakout.

And here's the intro for what Rocky has analyzed and found:

Foreword: Friday's expiration was not your ordinary expiration Friday. Not only did options expire, but stock index futures, single stock futures, and stock market index options also expired last week (as they do every March, June, September, and December expiration). When all four of those contracts expire on the same day, it is referred to as a quadruple-witching expiration. We've seen articles make the claim that quadruple-witching expirations are more volatile than typical days, due to traders scrambling to close and/or roll over their expiring positions in a horde of different contracts. While this sounds logical, you may be surprised by the story we uncovered when we actually ran the numbers.

I suppose the analysts we routinely feature could be saying I told you so.. Meantime it's still fun and sometimes educational to see what others are seeing and saying.

Such as: Stimuluszilla Killed Japan and Is Heading Our Way -- Seeking Alpha (9/19).

And: Are we Close to a Cycle Shift? by Marty Chenard, posted at Safe Haven | http://www.safehaven.com/article-14514.htm (9/19).

And an excellent article with chart analysis of gold posted at Safe Haven | Gold at the Crossroads - Analysis with Reference to Dollar and COT data, by Clive Maund: http://www.safehaven.com/article-14524.htm