Cycles tell a story about this market rally (the more things change, the more they're the same); risky ETFs that may be okay; and other trading topics

UPDATE - Terry Laundry's update at his T Theory site includes a chart and audio comments about a "mystery T" - so don't forget to check it out.

Here's a look at a few other items on the web worth checking out, including a look at certain ETFs for trading, and market charts analysis. Cycles expert Tim Wood has written a basic explanation of how he uses cycles analysis, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average as an example with additional comments on how he sees that (bullish vs. bearish). It's in his Market Observation - Tim W. Wood 09.25.2009, at FinancialSense.com: Cycles and the Big Picture. I keep Tim's Cycles News & Views site in the list at right because his cycles work really is impressive. Here's a quote of Tim's introduction - then you can click on the link to read his full article with the charts he refers to:

I have recently received a few e-mails asking about cycles and their application to the market. So in today’s wrap up I will attempt to present a brief and very simplified explanation of how cycles can be used as a very powerful technical tool once they are understood. I will then apply this simplified cyclical concept to the market.

From a cyclical perspective, the trend is defined by the direction of the cycle of the next larger degree. Also, from a cyclical perspective we work in many different dimensions. In this overview I’ll keep it simple and we will only focus on 3 dimensions. The key is to isolate and study each cycle of each dimension so that the direction and expectation of these cycles can be known. The identification of these cycle lows is definitely outside of the scope of this brief overview as it would require extensive writing and study on your part to do this subject justice. All I want to do here is simply present the concept of using cycle highs and lows of various degrees to show you the concept of how we can work in the various dimensions to identify important turn points. I will apply this concept on a very elementary basis and without the aid of indicators or statistical timing bands.

The first dimension that I work in is the long-term. Please see the diagram below. The red trend lines are representative of the long-term cycle. The overall trend is obviously up when this cycle is advancing and is down when this cycle is declining. These lows are identified using timing bands that have been developed through historical norms, the price action of each cycle of smaller degree and the help of price oscillators that have been specifically timed and developed for each cycle. Once a long-term cycle low is identified and confirmed we then know that the trend is up. We can then use the declines into the lows of the cycles of smaller degree as buying opportunities.

Here's another article, this one's a little more immediately bearish than I'm feeling right now, but hey - if it's just a week or so here or there, it's pretty close anyway, and this one has a bunch of neat charts: Multi-Year Bear Market Appears Ready to Return -- Seeking Alpha, 9/26/09.

And a good article about certain ETFs including FAS, FAZ, DTO, UNG, VXX/VXV, and some others: Defending the 'Most Dangerous ETFs': A Response to Don Dion -- Seeking Alpha (I think it's dated 9/25/09).

And check out the posts at our UBTNB3 blog, including Brian's (kalkgrun) chart showing LIBOR sparking up (link at right side of the page).

ADDED: And this weekend's sentiment and technical review from Todd Salamone and Rocky White at schaeffersresearch: Monday Morning Outlook: Despite Long-Term Uptrend, Bearish Sentiment Prevail, 9/26/09.