Monday, September 14, 2009

Equities markets "off the map" and pushing past pivot positively - under spell of triple witching?

Today's map from ChartsEdge worked fine for the morning but then positive bias took over and started driving the markets higher. That was an early clue the SPX would aim for the upper limit at SPX 1048 of Tony Caldaro's 1041 pivot. Sure enough, getting close to the close, it took out 1048 to tag 1049! This was the signal to take some action, even if it's just as I described this morning with the idea to see if 1053 or just above 1053 (1060, anyone?) produces a reaction. Or do we just look for a march to Tony's 1107. We can drop in on Tony's update this evening (site and feed at right) for his views. I've borrowed his daily chart below (thanks Tony!), placed with my weekly SPX and QQQQ charts so you can see the Fibonacci levels being tested. Is it possible the QQQQ goes to its .618 retrace, with SPX going to 1107? Or might 1053 (1060) do it? At this point, with the ChartsEdge weekly pointing up too, my weekend comment about another buy-on-Monday week seems about right. Especially as it would have to break today's low and 1028 to start the trend-reversal confirmation process. Now that we have a new weekly high, and over 1048, many will rightly look to see how far this will push. So it's either long, or daytrading (or cash) until and unless a new sell trigger presents.

Remember when I posted about the nature of a zigzag? It gets to feel relentless after a while, until it's just over. If you're feeling that way, remember the feeling next time the zigzag points down. I hear that VIX premiums eroded today, and it's feeling consistent with waiting out the dollar too - needing a bit more time to complete its own movement. Then again, tomorrow's 9/15, so staying as flexible as you can seems a good idea too, based on some of the cycles seen by some including Andre Gratian and Raymond Merriman.

I mentioned 1060 SPX because that number was vital - perhaps literally - to my latest and best trading mentor. But, you can also see that Andre Gratian called out 1061 as a Fibonacci-based projection if the SPX made it past 1045 again. So, let's consider that level which can also play off the 1053 (a number not only Fibonacci based but also home to where a 20-month EMA and 80-week MA have now perched).

The banking and financial sectors did huge work this afternoon to stave off potential head & shoulders patterns. It worked for today so give them some room - for now!

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