Get out your magnifying glass - the dollar's move down today signals its downtrend isn't over!

Congratulations compatriots, the U.S. government efforts to weaken the dollar seem to be working still! Sure enough, the dollar moved to another new low today, which makes sense as Tony Caldaro has continued to mark the dollar in a downtrend and despite my cheerleading for the dollar, it just refused to rally the last couple of weeks.
Not that it reached a new all-time low - the bottom chart shows a low at 70.70 in the $USD dollar index reached in early 2008. So this is just part of the way back there. Question is, is this part of a movement down to new lows? or just a deeper retracement back toward 70.70, perhaps "only" going toward 73.58?

Since this is a second move under the 77.92 Fibonacci retracement, it leaves open the prospect of moving to a lower retracement level such as around 73.58 as I've shown in the past. That would be consistent with the euro and gold edging higher, as they did today, even if the moves in all three weren't totally convincing. Gold popped up but then declined during the day. The euro formed a possible doji or evening star. But let's be realistic - it isn't "normal" in a Fibonacci pattern to see price retrace back under a Fibonacci level for a second time, as $USD did under 77.92 today, and then trend reverse. Instead, this falling back under the level once again, signals it is more likely to be a trend continuation movement. Therefore, it means that wanna-be dollar bulls need to set aside sentiment and be prepared for the dollar to test lower still (even if there are rebound efforts and/or chop along the way), along with higher gold, etc. etc. It also means that any KI$$ approach is to trend trade which means short the dollar, long euro, long gold. At least so long as the StochRSI indicator and the Objective Elliott Wave counts are going the same way you're going!

Following the StochRSI indicator works especially well if you set it using "21" rather than the default "14" interval so it gives a more consistent read, and then track it on two closely related time frames that make sense for your trading time frame and style. For example, using the daily and weekly for swing trading. In the $USD chart, the weekly has remained negative, and the daily has just returned to negative, so it suggests negative trend. The StochRSI indicator when used in this way signals when to get into and stay with the trend (it can be used the other way, using very short time intervals in order to signal turns).

To go along with my lower target of 73.58 (or perhaps lower, but we'll take it one Fib at a time for now), I've also got a target of 1192 for $GOLD continuous contract. If the yen will continue bullish, I've got it marked for re-testing 111.49 and then likely going to new all-time highs. So ... we'll see!

Notice that the ADX-DMI indicator looks more bullish for gold than, frankly, for either euro or yen (but don't get me wrong - the indicators are very good on all three). So personally I'm leaning to be more bullish on gold than necessarily on the currencies (despite gold's intraday decline today). The ADX-DMI is a good method to gauge trend and it looks like the daily gold chart is putting on a good uptrend here. Assuming that is the case, I don't want to see gold moving under a prior day's low anytime soon.

I still do think it's a good idea to trade carefully around these, but the move today was a real statement not to be overlooked.