Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Gold shot up today - does it signal the dollar will lose support?

Gold chose today to shoot up - why did it have to choose a day when I'm on vacation?! LOL - I know many traders were piling on, and it's sure looking now as though the bullish scenario for gold is coming to the fore. The indicators are consistent with the idea that gold is breaking up out of the triangular consolidation. What interest me from the Elliott Wave standpoint is that a triangle can never constitute the entirety of a second wave. This may suggest that the triangle counts as a "B" wave and the move up is part of a "C" wave. Then again, I know that Tony Caldaro has his own Objective Elliott Wave counting for it. Either way, it's clear that moving up and breaking out over resistance should take it to much higher levels. One objective I have for the bullish case is 1192 - so we'll see.

Does this mean that the dollar will lose support? That is certainly possible. It didn't happen yet today, but the dollar did certainly move down from the high it poked yesterday which had looked like a trendline test on my large $USD daily chart (below, along with my large $GOLD daily chart). So, gold did not make a new high, and the dollar did not make a new low. Technically that means that neither one definitely broke key price levels, yet the movement was obviously striking.

In other news, equities moved slightly lower, and I'm going to be especially interested if they can make either today or tomorrow an interim low and try a bounce - as part of that, looking at the volumes which should help clue in just how bearish the move down will be.

I spent most of today at the beach and will be doing similar vacation stuff tomorrow so don't know how much I'll be able to watch and post. I'm glad that Trader Brian weighed in with comments including on natural gas (UNG). I see other people on other boards are talking about UNG, and trying to decide when it's a buy. So traders are beginning to feel some interest. Swing traders will need to see a day that closes above the high of the prior day - don't know when we'll get that. I may not be able to do any original charting of my own until the weekend (I'm mostly using my iPhone to post, if you can believe that - well, maybe you can believe it, given how my posts have been looking the past couple of days, LOL again!).


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