GS breakout barrels beyond bearish pattern bullishly, but closing on resistance barriers

Goldman Sachs (GS) has been a bullish bellwether for the rally, having barreled higher than almost any other sector or stock other than biotech and corporate bonds. Last week it definitively broke above a Fibonacvi level on my weekly chart in a manner that suggests it won't be captive to a certain bearish Fibonacci pattern. Does that mean we can now clear it as being in a bullish uptrend to new highs? First, I'll note there's chart resistance at about $185 and $201. Also, I cross-checked to see what Tony Caldaro is showing for GS in his chart lists (available via his chart lists link at his Elliott Wave Lives On website (included in the list at right)(thanks again Tony!). Tony's Obective Elliott Wave count implies that GS is in an extended "c" wave that, when done, should complete a larger "b" wave bear market rally.

Unless the stock price goes into a triangular consolidation or similar extended sideways chop for the coming months, that wave pattern places GS at rusk of re-testing its lows. Since GS has handily outperformed the financial and banking sectors, it's difficult to fathom what fundamental factors would send it so much lower. Well - unless the broad financial issues affecting the entire country and government, of course. It's known that GS manages to find a good business niche to derive good revenues, each quarter. Aside from fundamentals, there's the simple matter of stock price being set by demand vs. supply. We'll have to see if further lift in equities can get GS past resistance, or merely help it complete the current wave up to crest at resistance that puts it at risk of a substantial retracement. A "c" wave down commensurate with the "b" wave up would, in my EW understanding, go under the prior lows. In Tony's OEW counting, it's my understanding that it could go to a deep retrace (maybe .786?) without necessarily making a new low. By the way, a triangular consolidation could also retrace .786 back to the low.

The real answer depends on whether GS's peak was a wave V peak of a level that would send it lower, to new lows before it has a chance to make new highs. I'm not certain that's something the technicals can answer - depends on what's happening fundamentally. Unless printing dollars is the answer, I'm not really seeing where the magic will cone from - that will be up to Goldman Sachs, I suppose!

Bottom line: Goldman Sachs' stock price performance has been very impressive. Fundamentally, it will have to continue to reap continued or greater success in order to keep driving higher. Technically, although it managed to power up through a cluster of Fibonacci levels, there's not much higher it can go before hitting yet more resistance. Once the current wave can count as complete, the risk is that its next downward movement will be more than a normal pullback.