Wednesday, September 30, 2009

I spy a tri in SPY - as possible pattern, pointing low or high?

Although I've been thinking that the Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 is that it's started a small-level (minute, it might be called) wave 1 of the fifth (larger-level) wave to finish the rally - by today's close it's also started looking like a triangle (tri). You can see this on the 15-minute bars chart of the SPX below. It's a consolidation move with progressively lower highs and higher lows - a contracting triangle. Normally a trader can do very well trading in the direction of a triangle breakout. In this case, the indicators support the idea that the breakout can still be upward, with a good 5th wave thrust pointing to 1080 or slightly above. Now, this doesn't have to be the pattern that completes, because we could still see an upward sloping, wedge-shaped ending diagonal triangle. Either way, suggesting that a new high still lies ahead, even if it isn't to a greatly higher new high level. This interpretation would be jeopardized if the index first falls under today's lows. (And at this point, I don't see how it would stay poised for a new high if it fell under 1039.)

I notice that Tony Caldaro placed trendlines onto his hourly Dow Jones Industrial Average chart which suggest an ending diagonal triangle there. With waves 3,4,5 (or c,d,e) still ahead.

The McClellan charts below also show a triangle in the Oscillator. While meanwhile, the Summation Index is now struggling to remain above its own 50-day moving average. All in all, still reasons to think this bear-market rally has a little time and price left to go ... but maybe, only a little. If you're not a day trader or fast moving swing player, this choppy environment can be very challenging to navigate. Might want to wait and look for a trend reversal pattern to show up. When a trend reversal shows up on the daily charts next, it should result in much more serious downside than we've seen in months.


PS to ChartsEdge fans daytrading - you could have seen their Pattern Recognition map this morning at their subscriber site - it did a neat job of pointing to how the day actually played out, especially useful for any traders who stay in the game after the first couple hours. (Though many do just play the first couple hours and then go golfing!)

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