The numbers you need to know when this market rally's over: Objective Elliott Wave update by Tony Caldaro

Tony Caldaro's Elliott Wave Lives On is rated by Google as the most voted-for, popular Elliott Wave blog + charts site for a long time now, and with good reason. We're fortunate to bring you another of his weekend updates, and his site and updates feed are always at the right side of the page here. You'll need to know, as you read this, that his pivots have a range of + or - 7 points, so the maximum the S&P 500 can go is 1048 and still be in his critical 1041 pivot:
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
Market analysis using proprietary Objective Elliott Wave techniques
by Tony Caldaro

September 12
weekend update

The markets resumed their uptrends this week and the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 1048. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.1% and the NDX/NAZ were +3.0%. The Asian markets were all higher +3.7%, Europe was +3.9%, and the Commodity equity markets were +2.6%. Bonds gained 0.8%, Crude added 2.5%, Gold was +1.2%, and the Euro was +1.9%. The USD (-1.9%) appeared to be the only casualty. US economic reports were mixed with improvements in the weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment. On the downside, consumer credit dropped, wholesale inventories contined to contract, the trade deficit expanded and import prices rose.

LONG TERM: bear market
With this week's new highs the bear market rally has now entered its sixth month. Historically, this exceeds the five month rally in 1930, but not the eight month rally in 1938. Both of these Primary wave B rallies retraced about 50% of the prior Primary wave A decline. Thus far, the SPX/DOW have retraced about 42% of their Primary wave A decline. A 50% retracement would put the SPX at 1122, the original projection we made for Primary wave B back in early March. We had later downgraded that projection to between a 50% rally (SPX 1001) and a 50% retracement (SPX 1122). We continue to maintain the view that the decline from Oct 07 (SPX 1576) to Mar 09 (SPX 667) was a three wave, detailed zigzag. Ending Primary wave A, of a three wave Primary ABC bear market. A few days after Primary wave A ended we suggested that Primary wave B was underway and made the above projection. Since then the rally has progressed in a zigzag, as expected. We did get concerned at the SPX 956 high in June, even though the indices were well short of the projected range. The alternate DOW count worked out and Primary wave B extended after completing a downtrend in July. Recently we noticed the SPX running into long term resistance at the OEW 1041 pivot, with a potential completed count. Cautioning again that Primary wave B may have concluded at SPX 1039 two weeks ago. The market did have its largest pullback of this current uptrend but has since made marginal new highs. Since the SPX has not broken through the 1041 pivot as of yet that potential still exists. If it does, the next long term OEW pivot is at SPX 1107, which is close to the 50% retracement level at SPX 1122.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high at SPX 1048
Bear markets, as you must have noticed by now, can be quite complex at times. Bull markets are far easier to track. This uptrend which began in early July continues to work its way higher. From the March 09 low, Primary wave A, we have counted Major wave A (SPX 956), Major wave B (SPX 869) and Major wave C the current uptrend. Within this uptrend we have already counted Intermediate wave A (SPX 1018), Intermediate wave B (SPX 979) and Intermediate wave C currently underway. Right now, Intermediate wave C could take the form of a five wave diagonal triangle, if it does not break through the 1041 pivot. Or, it can continue to extend into a normal five wave structure into the OEW 1107 pivot. Just as the OEW 990 pivot was key for maintaining this bear market rally, the OEW 1041 pivot is key to either stunting or extending its advance. The ongoing decline in the USD has certainly helped stock markets worldwide. The USD topped in early Mar 09 exactly when the stock markets bottomed. Since then the USD has lost 15% of its value and the US stock market has rallied over 50%. When the current downtrend in the USD ends, as we're getting close, stock markets worldwide may reverse sharply in response to a rally in the USD. The CADUSD currency pair has been tracking the US stock market quite closely. A confirmed downtrend in this pair could lead a retreat in the stock market. All charts are available in the link below.

SHORT TERM: Support for the SPX remains at 1041 and then 1018, with resistance at 1061 and then 1107. Short term momentum remained quite overbought recently and ended the week at neutral. After a short term top two weeks ago at SPX 1039 the market pulled back to 992. Its largest pullback since the uptrend began in early July. After retesting that low the following day, the market rose to SPX 1048 on friday with no pullback greater than 9 points. After hitting 1048 the SPX pulled back 10 points to 1038 but turned higher to close at 1043. The key level to observe now is SPX 1049. This would indicate a breakout through the 1041 pivot and suggest higher prices ahead. Should the market fail to reach that level and sell off sharply next week. Then the previously mentioned diagonal triangle would be in play. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS: The Asian markets gained 3.7% on the week. All indices are now in uptrends but China's SSEC and Japan's Nikkei. We should note that three of the indices, based upon our long term indicators, may not see their lows again. These are the BSE, HSI and the SSEC.
The European markets gained 3.9% on the week. Both the DAX and FTSE remain in uptrends.
The Commodity equity markets, Canada and Brazil, gained 2.6% on the week. Both are in uptrends, and Brazil may not see its lows again either.

COMMODITIES: Bonds gained 0.8% on the week as the uptrend in bond prices continues. Yields on all maturities appear in downtrends.
Crude gained 2.5% and NatGas gained 8.5% on the week. Both remain in downtrends.
Gold gained 1.2% on the week and closed at an all time new high closing price $1006. Silver gained 3.3%, and both remain in uptrends.
The USD (-1.9%) made new lows for the downtrend, as the uptrending EUR (+1.9%) and YEN (+2.6%) gained verses the USD.

NEXT WEEK: Nothing scheduled for monday. Tuesday kicks off the week with Retail sales, the PPI, Empire state index and Inventories. On wednesday the CPI, Industrial production and the Home builders index. Then on thursday the weekly Jobless claims, Housing starts and the Philly FED. As for the FED. On monday FED governor Duke gives a speech in Wash, DC at 8:45. Best to your weekend and week.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987