The yen looked terrible for a while as it dropped from the Fibonacci retracement line that could have been a wave 2 correction to send it down in a sharp, wave-3-of-C down to much lower levels. As I've described recently the yen has since taken the bullish path, retaking the Fibonacci retracement line on my daily chart, below (followed by my big-picture chart, of $XJY). This lines up the yen to retake the 111.49 pivot on the long-term chart, and ultimately to new highs. Given the chart position and indicators, the long side should be the right side for a long time. (There are ETFs such as FXY and perhaps others that can be used by those who don't trade currencies directly.)
I'm fine with KI$$ type traders treating this as a simple swing trade, where the initial stop can be about 103. Others can of course trade in their own preferred methods and styles.
While I'm back in agreement with Tony Caldaro's overall point of view of the yen as uptrending, but I don't agree that the big pattern on the monthly chart is an Elliott Wave triangle. Instead, I count it out as a flat. That's a big reason why I was worried it was losing support, because the rise testing 111.49 previously could easily have been a B wave. But now - and especially assuming it gets above 111.49 again - the yen can be cleared for new highs. In fact, counting that multi-year consolidation as an EW flat even allows the rise to go farther than if this were the measured move up from a triangle. It actually presages the potential for the yen to become a very strong currency, at least as measured in dollars (which may not be saying all that much if it's really just the dollar evaporating).
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