Up is up until it isn't: here's what others are seeing for equities markets

Two sources we like to keep up with on weekends are Terry Laundry with his T Theory website - though I don't see his update yet; keep an eye by checking his site, which is also included in the sites list at the right side of the page here. Terry's been showing for a while a "T" that was extending the second leg of this rally - we'll look forward to seeing what his work is showing now.

And also, the Schaeffers Research outlook for the week ahead, which this weekend is at: Monday Morning Outlook: A Definite Uptrend, But Speed Bumps Ahead. Here's what their summary intro says:

Improving economic data was once again the center of attention last week, and Wall Street bulls seized the opportunity to send stocks steadily higher throughout the week. Even China got in on the act late in the week, while merger and acquisition activity also boosted investor sentiment, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to chalk up its seventh win in nine weeks. Looking ahead to next week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines the effect of triple witching and looks at some key resistance levels in some of the major indexes. He concludes that these are "speed bumps" rather than warning flags. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the practice of "window dressing" and whether the buying of outperforming stocks and the selling of underperforming issues during the last two weeks of a quarter has had any impact on the market in 2009. We wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

Being more specific, here are quotes from Todd Salamone and Ricky White:

By Todd Salamone: The week ahead sets up for an interesting tug-of-war. On one hand, huge long-term technical resistance lies just overhead on major indexes such as the SPX, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP). On the other hand, triple-witching expiration week is upon us, a period that has historically had bullish implications, even amid a down market this decade. So what gives?
....
Let's turn to the technical backdrop of key indexes as we enter this week's trading. On Friday, the SPX hit a 2009 high of 1,048.18, before retreating to close at 1,042.73. The high was just below the SPX's 80-week moving average, which is currently situated at 1,053.50. The importance of this trendline says it all in the chart below. From 2005-2007, it acted as a support level on several pullbacks. The break of this moving average in January 2008 proved damaging. Moreover, an attempted push above the SPX's 80-week moving average failed miserably in May 2008.
....
The 600 level on the RUT has also proven to have historical significance Last Friday's high was 597.98, just a chip shot away from this important round-number level. Note the significance of 600 on the chart below. It marked the top in March 2000. And, as the RUT climbed higher from its 2002-2003 lows in the 350 area, it first touched 600 again in January 2004. But sellers emerged at this level once again, and 600 was not taken until November 2004. So, we enter this week with the RUT trading just a shade below the 600 mark, after the double-bottom at 350. Technicians might also find it of interest that the 600 level is a 50% retracement of the July 2007 peak at 850 and the March low at 350.
....
And from Rocky:. Analysis: Along these lines, I decided to see if I could gather some hard numbers that confirm the effects of window dressing. Looking at quarterly data since 2006, I considered only stocks in our database that began the quarter above $7, had a market cap of at least $5 billion, and open interest of at least 25,000. I based these criteria on the premise that funds invest mostly in bigger names that are highly liquid. I then gathered returns from the beginning of the quarter up until two weeks prior to the end of the quarter. If window dressing is rampant, you would expect the highest-returning stocks to spike even higher during the final two weeks of a quarter, as mutual funds snatch up these outperformers before the end of the quarterly reporting period. Likewise, you would expect stocks with the lowest returns to underperform in the final two weeks of the quarter, since managers are selling these stocks to get them off their books.
.... he goes on including a review of specific stocks)

UPDATE: That Mike Burke Technical Market Report article that Andre Gratian referenced - is at http://www.safehaven.com/article-14461.htm.

And there's another article there which some may also find interesting, SP 500 Uptrend Remains Intact and Dominant - at
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14456.htm. But it's the Mike Burke article that I really wanted to post the link for.

An article at Jesse's Café Américain: Signs of an Approaching Decline in US Equities That Could Be Quite Impressive, http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/09/signs-of-approaching-decline-in-us.html, makes some interesting points as well. Here's a sample of what they're saying:

Continued heavy insider selling from those with the best forward view of the real economy is a clear sign of a top. No one can trust what the Fed or the Administration are saying about an economic recovery, as much now as ever. Obama's administration is no reform government.

This surprisingly robust rally in US Treasuries is remarkable given the decline in the US dollar, based in part on a strong yen and carry trades. The short end is obviously quantitative easing, with strong buying from Asian central banks dumping Agency debt but continuing to manipulate their currencies. 'Free trade' is an illusion.
The long end rally in Treasury suspect is likely interest rate manipulation by the US Fed and its central bank cronies. It has been a huge mistake to allow the Fed to perform the non-traditional printing that young Ben touted so proudly in his famous essay. Clever in the short term is too often tragic overall.

Gold and silver are surging as investors largely outside the US seek safety in harder assets.

There is also a community of small speculators outside the US which has been buying stocks on dollar weakness, to play an arbitrage with their own currencies. There is a hot money crowd in eastern Europe for example, and in Asia. And so far this year it has been working. At some point that door will close, quite hard, and many will be caught offsides and out of luck.