The ChartsEdge weekly cycles forecast had pointed down after a rise early in the week, so from that perspective, a drop wouldn't have been out of order. The ChartsEdge daily map suggested rising, which we got - most of the day. My understanding of Elliott Wave probabilities is that we can be expecting the pullback or consolidation, which I've previously said recently is common toward the 26th of each month anyway. And then a likely 5th wave up which might merely poke a slight new high - or might hit up toward 1107 area (despite my thoughts on resistance in the current area) - with a completion peak at end of September, early/mid October, which may work with Andre Gratian's projections, and should satisfy Terry Laundry's T Theory projections too. It'll be great if it all comes together!
I'm borrowing Tony Caldaro's SPX hourly and US dollar index daily charts (thanks again, Tony! - check out his site in the list at right) to show his wave count which has a lot of merit. I see support about 1050 to 1057, though Tony's update (at his site, use site link or feed at right) mentions other levels ... and I know Andre Gratian is separately reviewing projections to his subscribers. Clearly for Elliott Wave analysts, if this is going to become an ending diagonal triangle, it needs to continue dropping fast (though in a zigzag fashion normally) to poke slightly under 1039.47 SPX. I'll be a bit surprised if that happens, yet not displeased because it can be a very telling (and tradable though ziggy) structure. The reason I'll be surprised to see 1039.47 broken before the final wave completes this rally peak, is that a classic EDT has the middle wave (called either "c" or 3) shorter than its initial wave (whether called "a" or 1). Since only and EDT would also have the wave1/4 overlap caused by poking under 1039.47, then either I'll expect it's an impulse structure that remains above 1039.47 until finishing the rally peak, or something else is happening. Now, EDT fans, don't give up - I do rather expect and EDT wedge for the final fifth wave that should start once this 4th wave pullback/consolidation is done - we're just not quite there yet. Meaning - if the SPX does in fact move under 1039.47 before we identify one more wave up completing the peak, then the "something else happening" would probably be quite bearish. But c'mon, aren't we likely to see the QQQQ's test $43.30 area, before it's over?!
Also, if the SPX pokes under 1039.47 tomorrow, psychology will probably start changing, even though the EDT would give bulls a chance or two to cash out their positions at better prices, which can still range back up between 1080 and 1090 even though price wouldn't hang around there too long.
Remember when Raymond Merriman made a comment recently about taking profits quickly? We saw it today and it may well set the tone for the next week or so. After that will be interesting too, but let's see for sure how to navigate this wave we're in now. My passed mentor had a phrase, "TMAR" - take the money and run! If you see me using it, you'll know what it means.
Finally, the dollar dropped under that prior swing low support, so now I'm eyeing those Finonacci levels I've mentioned again recently: 74.75, and 73.58. I'll take either, and we'll know by reaction - pattern and volumes - which one is going to put in an important low. Probably right about the time equities chop into the peak of this rally, don't ya think?!
(all the sites I've referenced are in the sites list at right)
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