ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 10/16; and some comments on the equities rally

Careful folks! Mike at ChartsEdge is warning us the BP chart today should be considered with caution as it may not be as robust as on other days, because it doesn't look the same as their Pattern Recognition chart. But, it does synch up with their weekly cycle forecast chart (use the "ChartsEdge weekly" label to see it again here). I'll add comments below, in a couple of minutes:
=============

ChartsEdge BP Chart for Oct16

Posted: October 16th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell | 
Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

This chart is not in agreement with the Pattern Recognition Chart, but does agree with the Cycle chart.

=============
Thanks again, Mike and ChartsEdge!

Mike is right, the Pattern Recognition chart at the ChartsEdge subscriber site shows a different pattern. But it's dicey! If we gap down, there can be a rise as more shorts cover, thinking we still go to 1106/1109. There are probably enough caught by the rise this week (though it was pointed by methods including the ChartsEdge weekly, plus Tony and Andre) that can drive some bounce today. Then there's the old saying for opex Fridays - "up, down, then out". Well that's based on the typical timing and pattern generated as traders cover options in the morning and during the day. Then many traders just take off by noon, calling it a week and a month! Although of course some players like to stick around and trade for possible intraday moves if the swing can be big enough.

Again, for swing traders, we're watch for a trigger day (a day the doesn't go over the prior day's high, and that moves (preferably closes) under that prior day's low), and will have to see if we get one today, or not. One commenter yesterday said, there are too many looking for 1100. Maybe - yet if we tip over 1097 then it's a quick trip there (or should be) and then opens the door to 1106/1109, so the market will have to tell us. Either way, conditions are increasingly ripe, shown by a number of methods now. And the futures suggest we can move under yesterday's low, so it'll be interesting to see what reaction happens from that.

Our "string" of SPX numbers ending in "2" and "7" (lately also "8") has worked rather neatly on the way up and today we'll watch for 1097, 1092, 1087, 1082, 1077. Under 1082 would be a better slide eventually but probably not in the cards for today - might be a way to produce an intraday retest bounce. As mentioned, if over 1097, then 1102 and 1107.

Another reader left these comments:
I think we have already picked with yesterdays rally which drove the trin to 0.4x.
The internals were behaving completely differently with rallys without the ticks. Today's late rally was driven entirely by the oil trade (check out the sector moves).
The Trin didn't break below 1 even during the mild rally today.
All the earnings companies (those that announced as well as those that didn't) for today were in the red the entire day even when the mild rally took hold.
Stocks were detached from the dollar today.
[Even] GS was punished on good results.
Also, take a look at the mcl. vol. osc. we are done.

I can't disagree so let's be on our toes - happy market navigating!