A closer look at the $79-$80 hurdle facing oil bulls

We've looked at oil a number of times here, including identifying the low when it met a triangle target, playing it long on the first wave up, taking profits as that leg peaked, then reentering from the pullback for the second leg up, and selling the top of the second leg. Also identifying the swing low when the .382 retrace provided support. At that point, I remained overall bearish on the big picture. But I noted here recently that Tony Caldaro (see his OEW site link in list at right) turned bullish - just in time to allow readers to buy before the big push up in recent days (daily chart, at bottom below). Now, I really want to defer to Tony for Elliott Wave count, especially since I don't see a good wave pattern count near-term. And the indicators are looking confirming for Tony's bullish third wave. BUT - I just want to point out the resistance at $79 and $80 in the monthly chart of $WTIC, below. $79 (actually just over $78) represents the .382 retracement from the low earlier this year, to the $147+ high. $80 is where the Bollinger Band midline sits now (a mean-reversion level). Therefore I'd expect some definite resistance around the levels - something to keep a close eye on now.

The 50% retrace is just over $90, so if oil gets past the closer resistance then it can try for the $85 that Goldman Sachs had identified and then this higher Fibonacci level would be another level to consider. But first things first - let's see what happens sooner, especially depending on what happens with the dollar (whether or not the dollar has made a low already or soon).