Thursday, October 15, 2009

Congrats to Tony Caldaro for calling SPX to 1096/1097 - now what?

Congrats to Tony Caldaro who discussed 1096/1097 as a projection for the SPX in his Monday update! And, really, Andre Gratian has been tracking similarly, in his updates to subscribers. What's next?! We'll see what Tony says in his update this evening at his Elliott Wave Lives On site (link and feed at right side of the page here). Tony has the wave count marked on his SPX hourly chart (copy below - thanks Tony) indicating it may yet seek higher. But the 1096.56 that the SPX reached today would be enough to meet Fibonacci relationships. So we'll see.

From a pattern perspective, there's been no daily swing high and thus no sell trigger, since price hasn't triggered under a prior days's low if day (LOD). We'll look at technicals too, but I can already tell you there's negative divergence. We must still remember this remains a turn window tune frame, even if it goes out to a week from today (10/22 Bradley date) though I tend to like Terry Laundry's "T" for timing. If tomorrow - opex Friday! - goes under today's low, the bears will probably be waiting.

UPDATE: A reader commented, asking that since Tony has this marked as being in a 3rd wave, won't it go higher? Maybe ... First we have to be sure there's wave 5 still ahead - which certainly there may, since Tony's wave counting is very good. And by the nature of his pivots, going over 1097 would point higher. Then again, sometime a 5th wave can truncate, not making a new high. So the risks are heightened, but a sell trigger needs to occur in order for bears to test whether the top is in. A swing high trigger can happen if tomorrow goes under today's low (unless it makes another new high first - and GOOG is taking SPY higher after hours, so who knows (though the QQQQ is weaker); and then we'll see how the market would react. So - reasons to remain cautious!

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