Crude oil's momentum brought it to tentative testing of Fibonacci and technical levels

Oil's move off the swing low had good momentum but it's started to look a little tentative after reaching levels that may be overbought, at least short term. When you step back and look at my monthly chart of $WTIC, you'll see that it's doing this around the Fibonacci .382 retrace to the peak. Interestingly, this is also a test back to a couple of key Fibonacci levels that it broke under when it was dropping (levels measured from the peak back to lows of many years ago). Add to this that it's testing its monthly Bollinger Band midline, and it will be interesting to see if momentum can take it higher. If so, there's the $85 target Goldman Sachs stated months ago, and a higher Fibonacci retrace of 50% at just above $92.

What about fundamentals? Aside from the usual geopolitical concerns, it sure depends on your point of view about the economic context spurring demand - or not. Also whether higher oil prices would quell demand. Dr. Nouriel Roubini sure has views about both - here is a quote from this Index Universe interview, Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom -- Seeking Alpha:

Index Universe (IU.com): You’ve said that you’re worried we’re already sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Where do you see that most directly?

Dr. Nouriel Roubini (Roubini): Well in commodities, I look at oil prices. They fell from $145 last summer, came down to $30 earlier this year and now they’re back close to $80. But if I look at the fundamentals of demand and supply, demand is down to 2005 levels, supply and inventories are at all-time highs. In my view, the movement in oil prices is not fully justified by the fundamentals.
... Last year, when oil was at $145, that killed the global economy. I worry that oil is going to go up above $100 for reasons that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand. Oil at $100 would have the same negative effects on the global economy as oil did at $145 last year.
Last year, when oil was at $145, the global economy was still growing. Right now it has collapsed, and is recovering. Oil pushing above $100 would have nasty, negative real trade effects and real disposable-income effects on all importing countries: U.S., Europe, Japan, China, India; all the countries that were hit by the oil shock last year. So that’s an element that is in my view totally speculative, and dangerous to the global economy.

IU.com: Is that true elsewhere?

Roubini: I could make a similar argument for other commodity prices. In my view, rising commodity prices are not justified by the fundamentals.
There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets: commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument.

IU.com: Is there a regulatory solution to the speculation issue? Is the CFTC tightening and enforcing position limits a step in the right direction?

Roubini: I think it’s an idea worth considering. I’m not usually in favor of position limits, but I think the swings in the value of oil have been extremely dangerous for the global economy. Oil at $145 was the reason—more than Lehman or anything else—that the global economy tipped into the worst recession in the last 60 years. After the collapse of the global economy, oil collapsed to $30. At $30, there can be investment in new capacity. But now it’s back at $80 and soon enough it’s going to be at $100.

Wow! So he thinks it goes back to $100 - well if it breaks through all the resistance I've described in this post and on these charts, then I can see it going at least to $92 and such momentum may indeed take it higher. But for myself - although I understand the idea if more bullish wave counts - I prefer to see if this resistance area gives the price more trouble first. Not that I'm taking a big bet on it - I'm thinking of this in terms of trading away from this level in a small way, and see what it does if the dollar makes a turn soon.