Saturday, October 10, 2009

Don't miss the memo on corporate bonds: LQD triggered trend reversal to point down

LQD made that move triggering under The prior couple of days. Interestingly, HYG didn't make a similar move, even though it also had a high-volume selling too before the recent lower-volume rally. But TLT fell sharply too - accelerated by losing the 200-day moving average. I'm thinking LQD has the best chance to make a good downside move, however, because of the volume pattern coupled with the price extension and pattern. $101 looks like a good objective, also $99.

As for TLT, I'd hoped it would attain $101+, but now we'll have to see if it gets 50-day moving average support. Even if it does, it'll have to prove it can regain the 200-dma. If that happens, TLT can get bullish again - but if not, then Treasuries may be in more trouble than we expected near-term. Of course their long-term outlook is cloudy. But I'd thought more equities weakness would support more flight to safety, near-term. Well - we'll see!

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