I'm glad that I was able to point to a possible wave crest last week as equities reached that high, and despite the volatility in both directions after that on Thursday and Friday - and today- it looks like that may indeed have been the top. I've also pointed out it needs to be confirmed; but that's looking closer now. Tony Caldaro states in his Objective Elliott Wave update this evening (site link, and feed, both at right) that the uptrend is in jeopardy. He also added that: "The six month downtrend in the USD index appears to have ended.". Now, I was pounding the table about the US dollar ($USD) months ago, pointing out its inverse correlation to equities. Sure, I was early in trying to pick a dollar low, but those swing lows did produce swing-trade reaction highs in equities. Others have increasingly been charting the inverse correlation too. I will say, the dollar still didn't tap the $USD 74.75 level I've described, but equities are close to confirming they're topped out. It will take a break under the early October lows to make it conclusive (as already done in biotech sector). We're just as likely to see a push upward before we get that in the SPX, perhaps later this week as indicated by the ChartsEdge weekly forecast. (Speaking of which - their daily map converged with their weekly sure made a profitable easy day for daytraders! I'd tweeted about under 1085 and 1082 pointed to 1077 and 1072 - I should have added 1067! But I bet my regular readers knew that under 1072 brought 1067 into focus.)
Below are a chart of the $USD - remember, Andre Gratian also pointed to this in his update here yesterday. I haven't marked off the waves - I can think it finished the one last wave I was looking for after it lost 77.92 (though a little more confirmation in it wouldn't hurt either). Below that is an indication of the kind of waves I was also riding in my main meeting today. Also a very nice way to keep perspective!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment