Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Indices make ambiguous moves intraday struggling to remain above support another day or two

Today's intraday cycle lows made bigger drops than "expected", to the point of sporting a midday "rally" that looked dangerously like a small ending diagonal wedge. Maybe I'm just overly expecting a wedge like that to finish the whole B wave rally ... but the afternoon drop from it was quite low. Still, we won't have early confirmation until the SPX drops under 1080/1082, and the QQQQ under Friday's low. I don't think I need to repeat all the ideas about Fibonacci retracements to the 2007 highs. In fact, I'm starting to wonder if the 50% retracement levels are so much watched in the SPX and DJIA, that maybe they'll fall short - will see. Meantime, we're closing in on the 10/22 Bradley turn date.

Apple's earnings and big opening move didn't help as many hoped they would (Caterpillar too). Apple's intraday pattern wasn't encouraging, but not fatal either. Traders can keep an eye on overnight, not to mention the US dollar. And see what plays out the next couple of days - because it's feeling more like turning time now.

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