The SPX is running about as positive as it can while struggling with the 1070 resistance area. The dollar index might not have completed the low I've been expecting (74.75 or 73.58) after its second probe under 77.92, so we'll see if the dollar needs to get lower still. Today's dollar index quote is under my SPX daily chart, below. It looks like 5 waves up may have completed - even bigger question, the time up from the low is almost equal to the time of the upwave from the mid-August low. And we're very close to the mid-October time window identified by several cycles methods (including Terry Laundry's T Theory, and the Bradley model), not to mention my comment about A-C wave time symmetry on my SPX chart, below. So time-wise it's getting edgier, too.
A reader left a comment today worth pondering:
A reader left a comment today worth pondering:
Take a look at the big bounces in the XEU:XJY and SPY:TLT ratios today. Normally, this would be extremely positive for the stock market. I wonder why no response yet.
By the way, if the Euro:Japanese Yen carry trade comes back to pre-October 2008 levels, the stock market could roar back and break the backs of the bears.
So it's interesting. Will currencies continue extending, or reverse - and how might either action affect equities? Can we assume that an ever-weakening dollar and strengthening euro will help equities? Even if they're maintaining those trends, aren't both euro and dollar due for corrective movements (although the yen might not have much correcting in its near future)? Will this bear-market rally top out soon, or will it turn into a bull and stampede its way back? I think discretion is the better part of valor at these price and time levels, but of course we can alter path if the markets prove otherwise after this upwave is done.
| Value76.45 | Change0.485 | % Change0.638 | High76.56 | Low75.97 | Open75.99 |

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