Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Since Jeremy Grantham adds his voice to the "equities topped" warning, shouldn't you be listening?!

Technical views led us to warn that last week's high looked like a matured "B" wave crest for equities, which also fit with analysis by Tony Caldaro, Andre Gratian, Terry Laundry, and others. And I've pointed to yet others increasingly sharing this view, such as Tim Wood and Richard Russell. Now, Prieur du Plessis wrote this review of Jeremy Grantham's current views on equities - which are surprisingly very similar to ours: "Grantham on the Markets: '860 Is Fair Value for S&P'" -- posted at Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/article/169047-grantham-on-the-markets-860-is-fair-value-for-s-p. I say "surprisingly" because Jeremy Grantham incorporates fundamentals whereas the approach we typically take here rests on technicals. (Given that even financial market prices are driven by supply/demand!). It seems he expects a correction that will be deep and unpleasant, but not violate the March lows. The review doesn't go into his projections for after that, except to hint he sees seven lean years. (If those started in 2007, then fits with the timing views of Andre Gratian and likely others.). Naturally I'll be interested to play the long side of the rally after such a "C" wave type correction (whether or not it violates the March lows). That rally may be called Tony Caldaro's Primary B wave - if it's a "flat" wave pattern as Tony's suggested, it will probably retrace at least 90% of the way back to the 2007 peak. Whew! But as always, first things first. And the main point right now is, the respected Jeremy Grantham has issued this caution. So add this to the list of bearish cautionary flags flying!

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