Thursday, October 29, 2009

Technical trading of markets: SPX 1067, or "When we play by the rules we make money" - indeed!

Trading on technical analysis really does work - as I posted yesterday, we knew we had the cyclic low for Wednesday, the TRIN was very high, and Terry Laundry's 55-dma target originally for 1037 which I commented for 1042 (and as of last night was at 1045). Plus the SPX looked like 5 waves down at least for one part of the move. My statement was that 1057 was a reasonable target, and if higher then partial TMAR would be a way and then trail stops. After identifying 1057 as reasonable, I stated: "There can be counts that would take the SPX higher, to and past 1060 to about 1067, but TMAR about 1057 on 1/2 and trailing stops looking for more is likely a disciplined way to approach it." And intraday I was able to tweet, pointing out that after 1057, then 1052 should give support; and it never needed to even test that, so it was on up. Worked like a charm, right up to tickling Tony Caldaro's 1061 pivot stretched up to 1066.83 (pivot +6). Also Andre Gratian's subscribers got his technical takes and charts. All in all, the technical rules showed the context was bullish for a reaction rally. As they say, "When we follow the rules, we make money!". That statement's from an old ad (for Investor's Business Daily (IBD), perhaps?) but I've always liked that statement because it's true. Probably one reason why military types tend to do very well with trading.

Now we've got to be very careful as 1067 SPX is strong resistance (anyone thinking h&s possible?), and the VIX traced back to its 50-dma. If we see over 1067, we're thinking of the SPX' 20-dma and 1072, 1077 again. But for now - enjoy your evening!

UPDATE, PS to Mike: The shoulders of a head-and-shoulders usually should be about equal in price but need not be exactly the same. As Stockcharts.com's Chart School puts it so eloquently, they can be "out of whack" - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t. I agree, I'd think more will start seeing that as a potential pattern if we get much higher. But it's one way to measure a next wave down, even if the SPX triggers on Monday without a move much higher. One clue to remember is that volumes picked up during the drop, and weren't as high today even though the advance/decline statistics looked good. That's concerning no matter what you call the pattern.

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