Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Triangulating on gold? Revisiting the alternative views on its prospects

I noticed a couple of days ago that EWI was showing as part of their free content, a triangle in oil. They didn't show the rest of what they believe about the Elliott Wave context (meaning, what happens next after oil made a thrust upward from that triangle). Hey, even I'm not trying to drill that down to detail, just showing my concern that oil ran into substantial resistance on the monthly chart, so not sure I want to abandon a bearish "B" wave possibility for it yet. But this is all a prelude to revisiting another dollar-sensitive commodity, gold. (Well there's also agricultural commodities, and DAG has fallen smartly after I tweeted recently that it looked ripe to pick, and AGA should be ready to benefit instead.). I marked a triangle on my gold weekly chart when I also showed a new uptrend parallel channel. Now gold has fallen to the bottom of that channel line. It didn't get to the 1097 level that I'd measured for a triangle target. You can see there are support levels such as around 980, obviously 1000-1007, not to mention this channel.

The deeper message is that I haven't totally abandoned a "B" wave idea for gold either! Frankly, gold would have to rise past 1200 before I'll feel more confident that we can leave that possibility aside. Meantime, I consider it an excellent reason to keep trading it on both sides, following the indicators, support/resistance lines, and near-term waves. Another KI$$ approach that's simpler and less nimble can be to remain long unless it loses major support from 980-1000.

No comments:

Post a Comment