ChartsEdge (US equities) map for 11/3

Here's today's intraday map from ChartsEdge Daily Maps (remember, their Pattern Recognition intraday map for today is at their subscriber site - follow links on their site for details, link above and at right):
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ChartsEdge BP chart for Nov03

Posted: November 3rd, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell | 

Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!

Folks, I'd referenced the idea of a low today. Still, the ChartsEdge forecast above suggests that the Elliott Wave count may not have been completely finished in the wave 1 down (perhaps in line with my idea of a possible wedge); or a more bearish interpretation would be that a wave 3 is already underway, but the structure doesn't really look conducive for that in my humble opinion. Also - the wave 1 can be done, with this being a simple pullback. Now, of course this doesn't matter much to anyone hanging short (or in cash) from the "B" top (and congrats trader Mike on your VIX calls whether the 30 OR the deep-in-money 24's - but the VIX closed under 30 so I hope you did TMAR profits and be VERY careful now, since a drop in VIX from here can really eat into call premium in coming days.). Daytraders don't necessarily need to measure it out either. It's only if you're trying to surf short-term swings, which I've already pointed out is a very dicey business right now!

There remain reasons to look for a wave 2 up, so remain alert for that. At the time I'm writing this, futures are down about 10 in the ES (S&P 500 futures). Unlikely (but possible) we see a pop that makes the indicated trend day down a simple pullback testing yesterday's low, compared to a new low. For now, we'll have to see if we get a new low, perhaps to test 1022 (and the 1018 that's a prior swing low AND one of Tony Caldaro's pivots), after all on this move, and if it happens within the converging trendlines of a diagonal wedge to complete a 5th of wave 1.

We've got the Fed coming up which is always fodder for games so just keep that in the back of your mind. Also keep eyes on to see if the dollar, euro and gold make any telling moves. The VIX may very well move to its Bollinger Band midline (currently at 24, the number I like for it anyway) next, too, so watch for that. Not to mention whether the positive divergence disappears, or whether it persists which will make conditions ripe for the indicated cyclic low today to produce a tradable rally. As always, careful out there - and happy market navigating!