The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday poked a new high predicted by some Elliotticians and Gann analysts, and backed off today. Was that it, then? Some are probably starting a i,ii,(i),(ii) wave count pointing down. And they might be right, but today's price pattern didn't close low enough to make that very obvious. And seasonality, cycles, and the possibility of the dollar dithering around its lows for a while longer, all contribute to the idea that we shouldn't call it confirmed yet. I'm aware that some went short yesterday - if you did, you just need to have confidence and be willing to close it out if the advance/decline indicator shouts "breakout!". Of course that hasn't happened so no harm, no foul. Below are charts of the Dow, the 15-minute and the daily bars. Given the close, we'll just have to see whether or not this index can continue to chop at its highs.
The waves off the high look to me so far as dueling abc's up vs. down - without getting into EW terminology, I'll just say it doesn't look to me unambiguously dropping. And volume wasn't too high today. Then again, volume has grown weaker on the whole wave up from July! Unless you're daytrading, this just calls for some more patience right now.
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