If we've "cried wolf" for the rally top, it doesn't mean equities aren't topping

The major indices aren't giving up easily, so it makes anyone trying to "pick the top" seem like the boy who "cried wolf"! After the first false alarm cries, later when the wolf actually showed up then no one believed him. Without going into much detail, however, it does seem the signs are popping up more. Interest rates are one important factor as I tweeted today. TLT (the ETF that tracks the US 20-year bond) never did make it all the way to $101, just stalled slightly under it weeks ago before falling back under its 200-day moving average. Now it's been trying a retest (from below) of its 50-day MA. Assuming bonds are in the downtrend this implies - and that Tony Caldaro has been showing with his Objective Elliott Wave analysis - it can undermine the bullish case for equities.

Speaking of equities, below is a 15-minute chart of the SPX. The consolidation yesterday and today kept its support over 1102. So it's doing its to keep the ability to pop up in a 5th-wave thrust. Ah say the bears - promises promises! Well we just have to see which it will be (and if up, how much). I've added at the bottom a chart of the NYSE A/D and the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. Notice that both actually declined today. So I don't see that deterioration as bullish. If the SPX can pull off another push up from this, it might have difficulty lasting into Friday - will see - and traders will just have to see if it can mount 1112 to attempt 1117 and ultimately 1122 (its 50% retrace to the 2007 high).

As I mentioned, the possibility of the market bidding up interest rates could be worrisome because it could force the Fed to reevaluate its quantitative easing (QE) position sooner, and bid up the US dollar. At least, that's one version of the story, and the new CPI/PPI data might tend in that direction. When I dropped in to see Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave update (see links and/or site feed at right), I saw he also commented on the interest rate issue - here's what Tony said:

Today's market activity did little to change the view from yesterday. The market stayed in the consolidation mode, retested yesterday's low, and then moved close to the highs heading into the close. .... We're keeping close attention to inflation. In the last two days both the PPI and CPI were reported higher for October. The consumer deflationary stage of this economic decline appears to have ended. Below is an updated public chart published by http://www.shadowstats.com/. Inflation is not a problem yet. However, once the CPI hits the +2% level we should expect some type of monetary reaction from the FED.

And here are those charts of the SPX (15-minute), and NYSE Advance/Decline and McClellan Oscillator: