Saturday, November 14, 2009

A look at GOOG: Some stocks go up, even if dip occurs that should be bought

Google (GOOG) actually is in a - gasp! - bull market uptrend, even if it falls back before uptrending again. Just because we're preparing for a rally crest to top out in a few trading days for broad stock indices, doesn't mean all stocks are in bear markets. GOOG is an example of one that completed its big wave [2] pullback at the low and working on higher waves to higher highs. So a stock market correction (even if broad indices make new lows) can simply coincide with a moderate correction in Google. Below are daily and monthly charts of Google. And I've also borrowed from Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave, from his public charts, specifically his weekly chart of GOOG (at page 18 in his charts - thanks Tony!). These show what I'm talking about. As for its point and figure (P&F) chart, it already met its $544 projection, but made a breakout move on November 10 to the low $570's which might be indicative of probing for a wave I top.

Assuming that GOOG goes into a correction - either from here, or after another push upward - then one possible level to look for a pullback would be in the $400's. Here's the deal - GOOG is marked as nearing a wave I top, after which there should be a substantial wave II correction. Often those will retrace 62% of the rise - which obviously would be very deep - but since this will be a wave II within a larger-level third wave up, it might not be that deep. Hence my mention of the $400's as a place where it might get pullback support (based on prior price consolidation area). The P&F chart support currently sits at $420 too. For fine-tuning it will also help to see where the 50 and 200 day moving averages are sitting at that time (plus the Bollinger Bands' midline on the monthly chart should help provide good support in that area).

The bigger take-away, so to speak, is this: whenever it tops the wave I, it can be tradable for the wave II drop. But even better, once it finishes that wave II pullback, it should make a fantastic buy for a wave III of [3] up. Granted this will take months to play out. Just remember these wave pattern ideas so that once GOOG goes into a pullback, you won't think it's headed to new lows. Instead, even if you play a wave II pullback from the short side, you'll want to be ready to get long once the wave II finishes.

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