Monday, November 9, 2009

Mind if I whine about stock markets volume on a day that blew 'em away?

All righteee, then! So you can bash me for thinking that wave 2 was likely done - then today, the Dow made new highs, and traders talked about mutual fund Monday money flows coming in ...! Another example that daytraders and margin players can flex in and out more easily, capitalizing on today's ChartsEdge maps which pointed toward intraday rising aster whatever might happen at the open. Sure enough the dollar was central, and its weakness might be just corrective or might be on the path to the 74.75 projection for the dollar index ($USD). So ... what's it all mean?! Well I'm working on a Dow alternate count but the negative divergence persists and volumes today were not impressive. Check out my SPX and SPY charts below, and you can see what I mean.

Cyclically, kudos to Andre for his work, and for pointing out today as a Bradley turn date. There are cycles pointing for lows later this week - exactly which day seems to depend on the analyst so I don't want to try voting on that! What I will say is, this action is actually making me more pessimistic about a Santa rally, because thatvwould have needed equities continuing lower into mid/late November. That can still happpen but the action here looks to change the timing and depth of a low - pushing back the timing for a significant low after this push, to where that timing may get into December. Oh well, we've gotta roll with it!

Meantime, don't get so wrapped up in today's rally that you lose sight of the technical weakness. Whatever adjustments may be needed for the Elliott Wave, the overall rally cannot last on the fumes that seem to be what's left here. Aside from new money that just came in today, plus short-squeezing with some additional liquidity off the G-20 easing consensus, mutual fund cash is at very low levels and cannot continue driving the market much higher.

No comments:

Post a Comment