"Red the new black on Black Friday" as power of Fibonacci works

Oh say can you "C" the power of Fibonacci for a turn in the dollar, gold, and equities (including the Dow, QQQQ and Russell 2000)? With the consequences in other markets? You can say that it's Dubai that's putting the "goodbye" into rallies fueled by dollar weakness. But readers know that the dollar hit a Fibonacci support, and the yen broke put. Well there's more to post so I'll be quick. Look at the charts below, you'll see an air pocket under SPX 1082 down toward 1070. One reason why we've been focused on whether 1082 would hold. Too early to see if it will hold today but it might provide a bounce. Maybe we'll see the QQQQ try for 43.30 and SPX try for 1087; don't know yet if we'll get past those today, or just roll over again for possible lower. Next question is will there be an unfilled gap from SPX 1100. Other places to look obviously are the levels about 10,334 in the Dow, and 43.30 in the QQQQ. It seems quite risky to get seriously long under those levels, so an intraday bounce should be considered merely an intraday scalp unless somehow the rally re-asserts itself. This weekend we'll look more at analysis whether the rally B up is down and now time to sell rallies for C down.

Note - gaps typically occur in Elliott Wave third and "c" waves. Given the size of this morning's gap down, daytraders can look to see where there may be a 3rd wave, 4th and then completion move down that might be scalped for a bounce up. But I'll point out the obvious, this is a big gap after some big Fibs and could be difficult to play today. So if you're trying to, I must recommend smaller position size and VERY good stop management - don't let losses accumulate!

I actually received a shopping promo email titled "Red is the new black on 'Black Friday'" and of course made me laugh so borrowed it. Since I was already thinking on the funny mix between the Black Friday name, and Black Monday from 1987. Not that the markets should fall far today. But my reference to "C" is to the idea of kicking off the C wave down that frankly we've been looking for. The last rally that the Dow needed threw some bears off the scent but the Dow needed to get to its own Fibonacci 50% retrace which was also in a cycle crest time and Gann window for it (50% retrace in 50% of the time it took for the drop from October 2007).

On gold, the matter of the long-term Fibonacci at 1192 does suggest it might go into a large 4th wave consolidation. That's not a guarantee and it could be a smaller-level consolidation. But given the size of the drop already - we may have to consider if it'll be a larger level correction. For the that, we'd expect it to remain above the $780/800 area (if it broke that, more bearish but let's not assume that). There's an alternate view that 1192 topped a B wave for gold with C down to retest 681, and we'll know if that's the right view if it looks like a strong impulse 5-wave move down. Gives us something to watch in gold. There's conventional price support at 1033 and further below at 1000 if needed for now; before that we'll see if the uptrend channel gives support. (But if you shorted the 1192 "ka-ching" Fibonacci, then you're not feeling any pain right now!)

I've gotta look for ChartsEdge but meantime remember - today's a shortened trading day. Traders will want to see how much short-covering bounce we get, and where it may show. Their weekly indicated some bounce so we'll have to see if the daily maps agree.

On currencies, we know the dollar is reacting from the 74.75 $USD test as it should. We'll see if it can get back to a 50% retrace up at 82 or if another pattern sets in over coming days. As for the yen, the chart indicates it should continue upward, so it'll just be interesting to see how that works out for the dollar-yen pair! Wish I had some insight on that aspect, since the $XJY chart is quite positive for the yen.