Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Stock markets saved by bell from confirming next direction - like rabbit from hat? As price resistance persists

Elliott Wave is a useful tool, but if that were my only one I'd be going a little crazy I'll admit! Hats off to Tony Caldaro who is adjusting and responding at his Objective Elliott Wave site - you may want to read his OEW update on that this evening. I've been puzzling over different alternate counts but they all boil down to the same thing: the advance remains choppy and channel-bound - so until and unless a channel is broken (either way), keep selling from resistance and buying from support. Once there's a channel break, then change the rule to follow from the break. Keeping it simple, eh?! (And Andre Gratian, with his weekly updates here and his intraday to subscribers, is doing a fine job with those trendlines!)

Many stock indices formed a "doji" candlestick indicating indecision today, as the intraday Elliott Wave count leaves room for the interpretation that the Dow, at least, has one more finishing wave to go before its B wave top is done ... while the S&P 500 couldn't regain the 1097 level. What's the wave count? I'm happy to refer to Tony's work (thanks Tony!) - I could show my theories but can't say it "holds a candle" to his analysis really. It feels like coming up with "the right count" is almost like drawing a rabbit out of a hat! Of course for the markets themselves, that's not such a difficult exercise when there's still monetary stimulus being the "carrot" coaxing higher levels in the market ... but the negative divergences remain:


I don't know who to credit for the neat cartoon but it works!

Considering another classic method, price support/resistance, you can clearly see on the weekly charts (borrowing Tony Caldaro's DJIA and Nasdaq CompQ charts, thanks Tony! you can find them at his fantastic set of public charts at the link on his site) - the indices are up against huge price overhang resistance. In the Dow, from the 2004-2006 time frame; in the Nasdaq, from the 2008 lows. So - however the count resolves near-term, when you step back and look at the big picture, it's not reassuring to make big bets without more confirmation showing up. Since the dollar is so close to my target low (74.75, although I've gotta admit 73.58 remains possible), and gold so close to an interim top, it will pay to remain cautious here.

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