Monday, November 2, 2009

These technical charts show why we're short-term bullish but turned bearish for the longer term

These technical charts show why we're short-term bullish but turned bearish for the longer term. First are the McClellan charts for the NYSE and Nasdaq - in both, there's a bit of positive divergence in the McClellan Oscillator the past couple of trading days. And the Oscillator is also ticking up from oversold. But the Summation Index, after doing the "kissback" to its moving average that we expected, has rolled over pointing lower. Since the Summation Index is a longer-term indicator, it doesn't preclude a second-wave type bounce as we're looking for. But it warns us that around the corner, after the next bounce, a deeper drop is waiting.

The next two charts at the bottom track the percentage of NYSE and Nasdaq index stocks that are above their 50-day moving averages. While the comparable charts for those above their 200-dma's are higher, they've rolled over, and the 50-dma ones shown below reflect the weakness now in the equities markets. Again, not precluding a bounce, but a sign of the markets entering into sell-the-rallies mode.

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