Today was probably just the first part, "wave a", of the expected wave 2 pullback up bounce, with the drop down probably being part of its interim "wave b". But it felt so tenuous despite being "on hold" around SPX 1059 for so long, that it was feeling like wave 2 to me! What's next is either the SPX getting support at or just above 1042 and 1044, or just giving up and heading lower. There are reasons to think that it tries for such a "wave b of 2" support level to mount a higher challenge for "wave c of 2" for a price target like 1067, 1072, 1076-1082. Personally, I didn't want to hang long overnight trying for that. But notice - the drop filled this morning's gap, and respected the 50% retrace level of 1044 - so I can't blame anyone for wanting to hang tough unless 1041 is taken out.
As for the dollar, it dropped - a mere wave 2 pullback of its own, or something worse? Gotta wait and see. No wonder gold pushed higher again in a followthrough movement!
TLT looks like it's in the downtrend Tony Caldaro has been pointing out in his updates. Ever since it lost the 200-day moving average, it just seems unlovable. Anyone wanting a cash equivalent wants shorter-term instruments - perfectly understandable in the current financial environment.
The banks and financials, and even transports and other sectors, just couldn't fill out the day to look better. But we should not give up on the wave 2 rally prospects unless the SPX fails to find a footing about 1042-1044. Since I decided to keep it simple by just being short from the post-Fed spike, I hope to feel somewhat relaxed this evening!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment