Monday, November 16, 2009

Tooth fairy comes through for equities (and gold) but "was that it"?

I've joked about the tooth fairy if that's what it would take to get a wave 3 of 5 gap up in the SPX and other equities indices - and it looked like she obliged today! Or was it the still-weaker dollar? Or was there a difference today? Gold also popped as the $USD slid to 74.68, just under that .786 retrace level of 74.75 that we've seen on the $USD chart for many weeks now. As I tweeted, other than resonating around 74.75 for a day or so, it would not be normal for the dollar to test lower than the .786 retrace without dropping to (scary) new lows. Can happen - like the .81 or .90 retrace - but rare.

Then there's the 1113 level SPX tested today - was that finally "it" for the B wave?! Too soon for me to say, but it'll be very interesting if we get a test of 1097 again soon. Frankly it does look more like we finished the "3" and not yet the "5" but I don't want to bet big on seeing higher. One way from a swing perspective if eager to sell, could be to hang defensive unless 1113/1114 gets taken out to the upside - just one thought. The more conventional, safer way is to await confirmation. It depends so much on your trading abilities and style - since as Tony Caldaro points out, the SPX 50% retrace level is at 1122. Since the $RUT and Dow did it ... maybe the SPX will too. Others are playing the intraday waves - interesting the market bounced a bit from 1107 late in the day so kept its options open, so to speak. Meanwhile, gold poked that new high yet closer to a long-time number, $1192, which really has me wondering if that old number still has value. While it hit the lower targets already, it hadn't fallen put of channel so still had the ability to pop today, as it did.

Note added - there remain possibly ways that the SPX can test up to 1122 without simply marching straight up there. That's one reason we need to watch the 1107, 1102 and 1097 levels right now. There's more than one way the market can get there - can be the obvious straightforward way, but doesn't have to be. So let's stay on guard here.

Meanwhile, speaking of the dollar, gold, and tooth fairy - maybe there's a way that can all get enlisted in saving the economy, if the tooth fairy's amenable - LOL! I stumbled across that image this afternon - where DO people come up with these things?!! Enjoy your evening all!

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