US dollar touched Fibonacci target with an ending wedge - watch this for reaction rally

The US dollar index has pushed up from the 74.75 level that was a Fibonacci .786 retrace back to the low (as shown on my monthly chart, below). Was that it? Perhaps, since it may have completed an ending diagonal wedge shape toward the end of the recent drop. But we'll have to await confirmation by seeing it move above the downtrend channel, which will also put it above the shorter-term moving averages and push the Bollinger Bands upward. Often the first wave up after an ending wedge will still have its own deep second wave - so we should be prepared if that happens. The bigger question is, what's the larger pattern? I used to think along the lines of it pushing to higher highs, above 92. Now, I'm getting used to the possibility that it merely rises part of the way back up, to and perhaps past the 80-to-82 area before rolling back down to lower levels.

If it turns out that the dollar hasn't finished sliding, I've got the 73.58 level - but let's wait and see first, since the 74.75 level may provide the support for now.