Sunday, November 15, 2009

Weekend reading list of technicians and analysis reviews of the equities markets

We like to keep up with what some other technicians are seeing and saying - this weekend is no different. Here are some interesting ones to check out:

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations, at http://www.ttheory.com/. Here's his intro quote:
Update for Sunday November 15 2009. Today I present the AD T's case for a major up move starting very soon, first using the latest Advance-Decline T in the first PDf chart then refining it in the regular Daily Short Range T PDF Chart. Look over the charts then listen to the audio commentary that follows.
Then you'll want to check out his chart and audio comments to see what he's seeing and why he's making that statement.

Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Taking Another Run At 1,100 on the SPX, at http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=96296. Here's their introduction:
The bulls proved their resilience last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained a solid 2.5 % on the week, despite a mixed bag of earnings and economic news. Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines the September-November price action to date and finds an eerie replay of the May-July period. Todd also notes the stubborn resistance at the 1,100 level on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White notes the underperformance of small-cap stocks in the recent rally, and examines the relative strength of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) vs. the DJIA. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

Technical Market Report by Mike Burk, at Safe Haven, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15016.htm - suggests that the market will go lower this week; check out his report for details.

Investor Sentiment: Smart Money Turning Bearish by Guy Lerner, at Safe Haven, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15022.htm.

If This Is Recovery... - by John Mauldin, at Safe Haven, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15017.htm. Looks at economic data and charts, including measures like sales tax
revenues and job losses.

Generic Drug Makers | posted at Phil’s Stock World, by "Pharmboy" - Nov 10: http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/11/10/generic-drug-makers/.

Speaking of Garish Bling, the US Long Bond Is On Sale Today, at Jesse's Café Américain, http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/speaking-of-garish-bling-us-long-bond.html. Quite a set of comments on Treasuries - but with the probability that Treasuries' downtrend will puck up (meaning TBT should benefit so long as a downtrend isn't negated), this is worth remembering. Here's a quote along with an image they posted along with their article:
Some US institutions are being compelled by new government regulations to buy long bonds to 'match duration' of their obligations per a ruling of a few years ago.

Other than that, anyone buying the 30 year bond, other than for the Fed carry trade, in a time of quantitative easing and free spending government, should be institutionalized.

Whoa Jesse - don't beat around the bush - tell us what you really think ....! 'Course we're not saying you're wrong! We'll take a closer look at the Treasuries charts in a couple of days.

And I'll close with a quote from a comment by Tony Caldaro at his Elliott Wave Lives On site blog (link always in list at right) - clearly a followup to his "all that glitters" post about gold, quoted from in a post here a couple days ago:
Posted Bob's and John's forecasts for Gold. Technically I'm in the $3750 - $5000 camp by 2012. If Crude can go from $10 to $150 on peak oil. Then Gold can easily go from $250 to $3750 on peak reflation. Have heard numbers as high as $300 or so for Crude.
Guess it's a reminder that as traders, we should be (at least psychologically) prepared for anything!

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