Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Ben Bernanke named "Person of the Year 2009" by TIME; it's largely about social mood

It's official! See "Ben Bernanke - Person of the Year 2009" - at TIME, http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251,00.html. Here's a quote:

He just happens to be the most powerful nerd on the planet.

Bernanke is the 56-year-old chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the U.S., the most important and least understood force shaping the American — and global — economy. Those green bills featuring dead Presidents are labeled federal reserve note for a reason: the Fed controls the money supply. It is an independent government agency that conducts monetary policy, which means it sets short-term interest rates — which means it has immense influence over inflation, unemployment, the strength of the dollar and the strength of your wallet. And ever since global credit markets began imploding, its mild-mannered chairman has dramatically expanded those powers and reinvented the Fed.

So - it's quite interesting for Fed-watchers! Especially with today being FOMC Wednesday!


The point about social mood, or socionomics, is that this reflects only partly on Bernanke himself, while largely reflecting the hopes and fears of the general population. Selecting Bernanke couldn't have happened previously in his term, because he wasn't so widely perceived as being at the center of the financial recovery (or, situation if you prefer that word). President Obama reinforced this during his speech reappointing Bernanke, describing him repeatedly as having a central role.

We also tend to believe that social mood produces the waves that send the markets up and down. So that whether the rally gives out, or instead produces a kind of glorious wave V (at least wave 1 of V) up without revisiting the March lows, really depends more on collective mood and less on Bernanke himself. He can help influence mood; but if it turns even for an external reason, it may not help. Time will tell (a pun of course) whether this limelight of being named "Person of the Year" - apparently engineering a rally that's lasted from March until now - merely marks another passage of good fame for him. Or whether the history yet to occur, will be as kind.

Update - can't resist quoting also what Rick Santelli said this morning on CNBC, that this isn't so much growing the economy as it is "Keynesian-ism with a sugar buzz.". Priceless! Again - it'll be history that looks back and will know with more objectivity and the benefit of seeing results, whether all the quantitative easing, liquidity and government spending really did the job.

For today, we won't spoil the moment by reminding of the perils that can still lie ahead. For today, we'll just say congratulations. (And continue counting out bullish scenarios for gold.)

No comments:

Post a Comment