Big-picture cycles support an equities rally peak in 2010 - just gotta be nimble about when!

Dear readers, I want to remind that the Decennial Cycle and the Benner-Fibonacci cycles support a top in 2010. That goes along with Terry Laundry's point of view (see prior post) as well as Tony Caldaro's weekend update comments. I won't be able to post charts with this post. But there are previous posts I've made about the Benner-Fibonacci and Decennial Cycles, which include charts showing those - you can find with the links at right.

For position trading, the key will be whether it peaks in January, March*, May, or August. That's the lineup as best I can see for a top. It would be great to get 100% certainty but right now, identifying these months is the best handle I can get on when to be on our toes for a big turn. Fortunately we will be able to use levels and indicators to get a fix on the situation at those times.

For now, I echo those who don't see a crash dead ahead. The SPX 1082 level looks very important as support for this view. And of course Dow at 10,334. And the QQQQ remains over $43.30, so it will have to get under that when the time is right, before the market gets bearish. So as long as it's above that level, I think readers will want to remain either slightly long (especially above SPX 1090/1092 for now) and/or trading for very short-term scalping-type moves with relatively quick TMAR (take money and run).

*UPDATE NOTE: for those who like the Bradley model - remember that the Bradley turn dates are only that, turn dates. In other words, the version charted out by Zimmel shows a high March 1, and a low in August 2010. But it can easily turn out just the opposite. March 1 or thereabouts might very well be a LOW, and August may well be a HIGH. That's why I marked that with an asterisk - right now, I'm not seeing anything else that points March as a high. In fact, notice that Zimmel's 2009 version wasn't real true. Odd when you realize he was actually forecasting a huge rally to his subscribers - so his free public Bradley didn't line up with his real ideas. So let's not get wedded to March being a high.

May or August as the high will be consistent with Terry Laundry's good work. (It will even be consistent with a large B wave than can be an expanded flat B wave. Some may even call it a supercycle wave V if it makes a new high in the equities markets!)

AFTER a high peak during 2010, then the following drop may be a huge one, especially if it is a wave C of an expanded flat.

I'll add this - I had thought we may already be either part of, or done with a flat formation in which 2007 was a B wave top. But I must be flexible - if such a flat finished, then it's on to wave V up. Alternatively, we may have bottomed the A wave as Tony shows, in which case an expanded flat B wave can expand and go either 90% back to the 2007 highs, or even make new highs. Crazy, eh? but if this happens, you don't want to be shorting it or else you will go broke fast. We'll be reviewing more about this possibilities as we get into early 2010.

For right now - let's stick with the idea of the markets being in no present danger (unless the supports noted above are lost), and edging on up into early or mid-January. I like Tony's idea about the timing and would add, 10 months from the March lows points to January and that is an equal time to the "wave c of A" portion of the drop, i.e. the drop from May 2008 to March 2009.

That idea of 10 months, and 10 months, is not the same as Terry Laundry's T Theory work, but it may be interesting even if it's only a sort of echo either in time or in the advance/decline buildup and draw down phases.

How does this square with the US dollar's strength? Well, it is possible that the US dollar itself is due for its own pullback, perhaps a wave 2 pullback to retest its breakout levels. If that happens, it could help the euro, gold, and stocks get a breather or even a good rebound. It's what happens after that - after a couple of weeks - that can be quite interesting.