Thursday, December 17, 2009

Equities are down but not out until (unless) they violate these levels

Equities are down, along with gold, euro, etc., but as satisfying as this is for the bears, we must remember some things. One, equities remain over key levels. A good example is the QQQQ chart below. It's stll above $43.30 and it's funny the 50-day moving average is right at the $43.30 level now! So above key levels, including SPX 1082 and RUT 595, plus testing moving average support like the 20 dma in many indices today (and the euro testing price support at 143/144), all say that these asset classes aren't broken yet. Some look worse than others - like the banking index. And gold has a price-volume pattern that goes bearish for now unless yesterday's high is surpassed. So, it's fine to feel bearish, but allow for the possibility there can still be more upside, just in case.

I believe we'll violate these levels in good time, just not necessarily this week. From here, it's literally possible to make bull and bear cases, both. We'll have to parse that over the weekend no doubt. Meantime, consider SPX 1110 a level we may see more than once today and tomorrow. For trading purposes, consider SPX 1097 and 1092 (there's also 1087 but I'm not feeling that); to the upside, of course there's 1102, 1107 and 1112 (AGain!).

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