S&P 500 struggle to push higher looks like pushing on a string

Many indices including the Diw Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 already reached their 50% retracement to the 2007 high and the S&P 500 is trying to join them it seems. But reaching 1122 seems very difficult for the SPX to achieve. Watching it intraday this week has been mostly painful and evokes the phrase, "pushing on a string". The more they push, the more it gets mushy and curls back. And why not?! Given that a major source of fuel, dollar weakness (speaking of pushing on a string!) is drying up. The dollar index isn't cooperating as the euro is stalling, and even the dollar-yen pair only helped briefly as the yen found support at 113 in the $XJY chart and then moved up - not that I'm certain how that plays in, frankly, except perhaps that the BOJ may be at least trying what it can to weaken the yen and support the dollar, in Japan's own interests. After all, they've got more interest in a weaker dollar than does the Fed and Timothy Geithner, despite his "protesting too much" on CNBC this morning.

But enough soapbox. The SPX couldn't hold over 1112 so it was selling intraday again, and by late afternoon gave signs of a bearish trap door (for which the swing stop is at or just above the mid-day high). Sure enough, after I tweeted about it, the SPX dropped until it tested under 1100. I'll leave the wave counting to Tony Caldaro right now and you can check his update (list at right). Maybe we get a reaction up tomorrow and then the question for swings is, do you really want to hold this over the weekend - and if so, long or short?! Despite the TRIN, it isn't feeling rewarding to play long this week. Still - stepping back - the Dow, NYSE, Nasdaq (NDX), Russell 2000 and SPX dropped to moving averages that may give support, along with the QQQQ hourly going to its Bollinger Band midline. Then again, the banking index made a nasty bearish engulfing bar. If you enjoy trading brinksmanship you're having a blast!