Will the efforts to push down the yen succeed? Here's a technical look

The yen isn't necessarily as bearish as many think. Yes, there was a huge spike in volume when it looked like it was going under the 50-day moving average. But compared to volumes in previous weeks and months, it actually was not all that much on an averaged basis. And aside from that one day, the selling volumes haven't been very bad. Is it possible that some big player(s) weren't just trading a pattern setup, but actually trying to sell the yen down? That would make some stakeholders happy of course. If they succeed, maybe it'll test the 200-day MA. I'm not really convinced it's that weak, but in any event it's still within uptrend channel support on my monthly chart. At this point I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt for the long side, but I'd re-evaluate if it texted the lower Bollinger Band and couldn't use that as support for higher highs.