Yen is at a level that can be important turning point

The yen as measured by $XJY (which goes up when the yen does (unlike the popularly reported dollar-yen pair that quotes lower when the yen strengthens) hit the 50% retrace to the August lows. It's giving signs that it may tick back up, which would confirm the possibility that this retrace marked the turning point to send it uptrending again. The main alternative to this view would probably be that, if it lost this support level, it could try for a 50% retrace to the earlier 2009 lows. Interestingly, that lower retrace would be about exactly the level of the August low (approximately 102.50). I'm inclined to think it should reverse to uptrend again, especially since the drop does have a symmetrical zigzag ABC look right now.

The real key will probably be in volumes. I actually posted a chart of FXY below, so you can see it will need buy volumes of a level near or preferably over the levels of the recent selling volumes. So as a speculative trade I'm curious to test whether the yen canreverse back up from here. But for real positions, we'll need to see the chart improve.

At bottom is Tony Caldaro's weekly chart from his public charts (link locate-able via links at right - thanks again Tony!). While his pattern view may differ from mine, his overall point of view seems about as bullish as mine. So we'll see if it can make a low here and keep an eye for a potential turn here.