Be prepared: Startlingly bad jobs data show long-wave (Kondratiev) cycles operating after all

The long-wave cycles are thought to last about 55 to 60 years. These were found by Kondratiev (Kondratieff) and others, as I've documented previously here (see prior posts under "Kondratieff" label). And it's also quite possible the equities market is now operating in parameters of 72 and 90 years cycles. Plus, Terry Laundry's long-range "T" incorporate 40-year periods. So it can't be too surprising that the data discussed below are over long periods. The danger is that what these data show, aren't just a temporary bottoming of a cycle, but the intro toward the bottoming. Meaning - among other things - that once equities do roll over (let's say, beginning in August), the next lows can be well down there. And not so easily bounced from.

If you think equities topped in 2000, then one target for the long-wave low ranges up to the year 2020. If in 2007, then later of course. This also implies that the financial woes should indeed reflect in data that stand out across the decades. You'll see that in the article cited below. And in the "Chart of the Day" work at bottom. Does this rule out further highs, maybe even new highs, before the next big crash? No - just that there will be another "crash" waiting around that next big corner.

First the article, and then input about the jobs data from Chart of the Day:

1) Market Observation - Brian Pretti 01.08.2010, at http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm.

Here's a quote - check out his detailed review with ample charts at the link above:

The "mountain of money" argument is certainly not completely without some merit, it's just it seems clearly not to be the big bull argument the Street makes it out to be. Although these are my personal opinions, some of the constituents of equity buyers that are households and corporations are not sitting on "mountains of money". Moreover, they are showing us directly in the data they are not in the spending mood, whether for capital expenditures, retail sales (currently resting at 2005 levels, as we have been chronicling), or equities. And in the bigger picture of broad money in the system that is M2, the numbers just are not that impressive relative to historical context.

2) Chart of the Day - Lowest decade job growth on record

Jan. 8, 2010

Today, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) decreased by 85,000 in December while the data for November was revised upward and now shows a gain of 4,000 jobs. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the percent increase in the number of jobs for every decade since the 1940s (the data goes back to 1939). As today's chart illustrates, the number of jobs at the end of a decade has been anywhere from 20% to 38% greater than 10 years prior. That 20% plus growth has been the case until the decade just passed during which the number of jobs basically ended the year where it began. This subpar job growth is particularly noteworthy due to the fact that the US population has increased by 10% in addition to a significant increase in global wealth during the same time frame.

Events of the Day
January 17, 2010 - Golden Globe Awards
January 18, 2010 - Martin Luther King Jr. Day (observed) - Australian Open Tennis Tournament begins (ends Jan. 31st)

Chart of the Day is provided without warranty of any kind and accepts no responsibility for its accuracy or for any consequences of its use. Journalists and bloggers may post the above free Chart of the Day on their website as long as the chart is unedited and full credit is given with a live link to Chart of the Day at http://www.chartoftheday.com