Friday, January 8, 2010

Equities rise from bad news each hour; but not exactly a lotus flower - time's running short

No wine before its time - and no turn before its time! As the afternoon wore on, I began to wonder where was the final 5th small wave expected for this leg of the move up, and remembered that the ChartsEdge maps sometimes seem to "give out" at end of day as traders position for the next day. Or in this case, maybe too many were short and had to cover - or whatever. Anyway, as the market wouldn't go down, it had to go up!


For our part, I'm counting this as a wave 3 within the EDT expected to finish the rally crest. Maybe the move up lasts into Monday morning. Anyway if my count is right, we still have another pullback coming, and maybe it will only test 1140 or 1137 before going for the brass ring at 1150-1160. Like today, the move may seem neat when it's on, but we are starting to position for the turn. Trade it your own way - currently, our approach is to start more TMAR, free up cash, be ready to play with a combination of ETFs and options, maybe some short sales.

This morning's jobs numbers were mostly bad, so the silver lining is rates might hold down for a while ... Or just steepen the yield curve. Gold is trying to decide! Meanwhile, more news that cautions we have reasons to expect the kind of correction soon ahead we expect for technical reasons - reported at http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=axUfVp0dw8wA:
Consumer Credit in U.S. Drops Record $17.5 Billion (Update2)

By Vincent Del Giudice

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer credit in the U.S. dropped a record $17.5 billion in November as unemployment close to a 26- year high discouraged borrowing and banks limited access to loans.

The slump in credit to $2.46 trillion was more than anticipated and followed a revised $4.2 billion drop in October, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease of $5 billion. The series of 10 straight declines was the longest since record-keeping began in 1943.


One sector I'm eyeing is retail. As you can see, it's lagging. What looks like a triangle is something that could break down bearishly. Today's weakness was on high volume - not helpful:

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