Thursday, January 14, 2010

"Is it real or is it Memorex"?! - Market continues chopping upward into opex Friday

Years ago that was an advertising slogan, about how they could copy sound quality so well you couldn't distinguish it from what's real. This stock market rally is starting to feel that way again - how can this continued rise be "real"?! Not that we mind since we know the rally is following our plans, so we're following our plans too (which differ depending on your timeframe and style). Below is one of the intraday SPX charts, a simple view but it made me laugh because it shows well how the market fought over every inch of ground today. Then Intel announced and the futures are green. Well, slightly anyway. Just enough to keep us hoping we may get above 1160 SPX by the 21st. If not - at least we'll get to a week from now, by the 21st - LOL!

The VIX was weak again today and its options expire Tuesday. So it looks like it's still got work to do near and under $17. That VIX-related expiration will come after a 3-day weekend and that may alter the pace of things somewhat. I'll be just as glad if things speed up, since a tuen window is supposed to start tomorrow, and it would be great fun to TMAR and set up the turning level trade. But we'll have to be patient if the market isn't ready to pop 20 points tomorrow - go figure!

I don't mean to make light of the coming turn. There are some laggards already that I'm thinking may log notable drops on the correction - retail (RTH), oil, gasoline (UGA), gold (GLD; one of the inverse is DZZ), euro (FXE; one of the inverse is EUO), agricultural commodities (DAG; AGA is inverse); real estate (IYR; SRS is inverse). If I'm wrong on those we'll stop out - I'm just pointing to these because they're at lower highs and therefore look poised for a deeper move down on a general correction with dollar strengthening. Just for the duration of the correction that should be coming.

But first we must see literally the shape of the rally continuation that we're expecting to put in a crest soon. Meantime, happy pre-opex evening all!

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Futures
Dow10,670.007.00
S&P 5001,145.700.50
NASDAQ1,888.500.25


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