Sharing more thoughts on the turns expected in equities and currencies January-March and later in 2010

Thanks for the comments posted recently, and here's one set us some responses, at least an effort to answer most of the questions about equities and the dollar/currencies.

"Method" posted the following:

Since we're predicting here, I'll throw in my 2 cents.

Based on Fib time relationship, I have 4 turn dates coming up on Jan 17th & 18th. This suggests that the top will be next Friday (1/15) or the following Tuesday (1/19).

It could head down from here or bounce to a new high around Feb 15th. If the close on Jan 29th is higher than next weeks high close - the trend will change around Feb 14th - otherwise the trend change will be mid Jan.

The next trend change date will be May 22nd.

Corrections will come around
Feb 18-26
Mar 12-26
Apr 12-16
and maybe one more around May 13th.

The bottom for the year will be either Sep 7th or Oct 14th.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I'm leaning toward "the high" for US equities on January 13, 15 or 18. And toward the consequent low during March. I've mentioned the possibility of SPX 950 because it's logical as about 50% pullback, and there's good price support. A very shallow correction might dip to, say, 1020/1030. But there's also a real possibility the SPX could test about 860. Depending what and how you trade, you need to be careful. For example, if buying put options, you'd rather estimate conservatively by buying puts around the 960/980/1000/1020 range (and maybe some higher), so you have less risk they're out of the money at expiration. Also, just in case the low comes after March opex, you'll want to think of options dated April or later. (Unless you're selling calls, or using other complicated strategies, for which you should also be keeping up with sites like Phil's Stock World and Schaeffer's.

But I digress. I still feel, as I posted a few weeks ago, the US dollar should test back to 80 and maybe 82 in $USD; though that next run shouldn't start until equities turn during that January 13-18 time window. And, we "should" get some more dollar pullback and euro spike before that turn. (As for yen - I'd like to maintain an overall bullish count, but let's see if it makes a new low when the euro does. I'm expected the euro to drop lower again as the dollar tests higher again.). I expect the same time frame in March should prove both equities' low, euro low, and dollar high around 80 or 82. Higher if the SPX loses 950 and especially 860.

As for gold, silver, and other commodities - oil, gasoline, agricultural commodities - it's tempting to think they'll travel with stocks and euro, weakening and contra the dollar, into March. If the dollar's move up is correlated with flight to safety more than with high interest rates, then I think this will hold. But if US interest rates start spiking high, then it could be different with gold, etc., having more strength. Will see - right now, I'm willing to think that Treasuries can trace out a triangle (or mock triangle) a while longer.

And so if bond rates can remain in check longer into 2010, I'm thinking that will cushion the expected March lows, and help fuel a recovery that can take US equities to new highs, whether into May or August. If it's August, then that leaves time for the tables to turn again.

I hope my comments make sense and respond to Anonymous' questions on equities and the dollar. We may see the month of March as the best buying opportunity for buying equities and many currencies and commodities, since - well, March of the year before (2009)! Been a long day so will set it down and pick it up again tomorrow!