Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Stock market rally resumes - don't say you didn't hear about it here

Stock markets rallied again after retesting toward yesterday's low points. For the SPX that meant trying to open well for 1140 but finding resistance there, dropping down to 1133. That was the buy and then the SPX moved up through the day. So indeed, it wasn't "dead yet" as we'd jokingly pointed out in last night's posts! And with the morning comments and intraday tweets. So I sure hope that daytrading readers made at least several good SPX points and maybe a full 15 if you bought 1133 as I was tweeting with that "Well, well" and then up to 1148 where some traders TMAR'd (took money and ran) profits. The real game is whether the market will continue on up to targets slightly above 1160.

I'm aware there are different points of view such as whether there'll be a pullback first, or even worse that the top is in. But I'm happy to stick with the plan as it's continuing to work so far. If you're just using rallies as places to raise cash, that's fine too! Since we are nearing our price and time targets - we're really in a transition mentality to be ready for the turn we expect.

Meantime, below are charts of the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq Composite - the latter bounced well from its rising 20 dma. This morning the VIX started by poking under its low of Tuesday, which was an early clue the VIX would be weak today. As for gold, check out page 9 of Tony Caldaro's public charts (see list at right); he's marked it expecting another (c wave) leg down. I can agree, even if it tries higher as equities try higher, but this whole broad-based rally is fraying. I'll consider that an early sign of what we're looking for - a nice decline coming soon to provide good buying opportunities in commodities as well as stocks once a low bottoms out. Reminds me, that bonds are keeping chin above water (staying over support). It will be really interesting if they can trace a big triangle or other consolidation to avoid dipping to new lows. I doubt it...!

All of which we'll continue tracking. So keep on getting ready for a turn. Even if it's only a mild 5% correction, we want to be properly positioned (especially if it goes deeper).

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