Japanese yen's strength only surprising if you don't know these factors

We've waited so long for the yen to continue moving to and above that long-term Fibonacci pivot level of $111.49 ($XJY, or using the ETF, FXY) that we weren't surprised by the yen's strength today. You can read my prior posts on this really going back for a year. At times I was discouraged by the pullbacks but on the recent set of pullbacks pointed out the retrace levels needed for support. On the daily chart, at right, it's evident that the 200-day moving average (dma) has been an obvious support level. The volumes haven't picked up greatly in FXY, and the weekly chart (below) shows that it hasn't been in strong trending mode, but that can change if and when traders perceive this as a breakout. Once it finally makes the $111.49 level into real support, then the next set of questions will be what are the target levels.

I've already sketched out some thoughts on target levels on my long-term monthly chart (which you can see in my prior posts about the yen). I actually have more bullish targets than some, because I do not see the monthly chart as a long-term trendline.

But let me also continue to raise another point - I do not rule out the possibility of another more bearish pattern, if this rise can turn into a massive B wave. That could happen if it gets to the 90% retracement level (the $111.49 is just the .786 retracement level on the long-term chart), and then reverses. So to remain truly bullish on the yen, we need to see it continue onward and upward past the 90% retracement level too. Assuming that happens, then it's on toward new highs. It may take a while for that to happen, unless it goes into a strongly trending third wave - that doesn't look obvious yet, so we'll see.