The direction the U.S. dollar takes from this range matters much - daily & monthly charts

Currency war, or truce? There's news this weekend that the G-20 nations' treasurers have agreed not to engage (further) in competitive devaluations that look like currency wars and could spark trade wars. But should you trade on that news? No, we rarely if ever trade on news! We trade markets' reaction to news. Look at the U.S. dollar index ($USD) charts below. The dollar index, measuring the U.S. dollar against a basket of other countries' currencencies, has traced out a large drop that might be a zigzag ... It's even gotten to - almost - a symmetrical amount on the drop which could support seeing it as a zigzag. (That idea could support either dollar bullishness, or the possibility of a triangle that further prolongs a trading range.) But the bigger picture is even more important. The dollar is close to where it could drop to a new swing low. That would look a lot like the "asset inflation" that could send stock markets and gold, also commodities including crude oil, soaring.

Conversely, if the dollar can actually put in a low here and stage a turnaround trend-reversal pattern, that would stall the markets. Might not make them crash as some predict. But would gave enough effect that traders and investors should exercise caution IF that happens. Many are thinking now that we're about to tip into dollar bear, equities-and-commodities bull mode. That may well be. I just want to alert readers that we're on this edge and be aware of how the dollar moves from here. The dollar itself may stall or even test higher before potentially going lower - so consider this alert as something that should be in effect for coming days (and weeks).