Sunday, November 7, 2010

Sentimental Journey: VIX and put-call ratio charts confirm everyone's seeing the bull market (uh oh!)

Sentiment has grown hot now that everyone's seeing the markets already exceeding or in some cases about to exceed their April highs. This is reflecting in the put-call ratio ($CPCE for the equity-only put-call ratio) and the volatility index ($VIX). Below are daily and weekly charts of both. I read them as reaching extremes and in the case of $VIX, at or very near support levels as I've marked and in terms of Bollinger Bands on both the daily and weekly charts. Not that a stock market reversal would be immediate. Often a more significant reversal occurs once these indicators have retested extremes at a lesser level. But these are warning that a turn is rather close.

I've also added two charts showing the percent of NYSE ($NYA) and Nasdaq stocks that are above their 50-day moving averages. Not that these are purely sentiment indicators but they do reflect a very bullish outlook when they're rising. Since both are at overbought levels, this adds to the warning. I've also added to each of those charts, as a lower window indicator, the McClellan Oscillator. In each case it's rising but to a lower high which is one of the negative divergences showing that breadth and strength are waning in this upwave.

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